Vanishing. This is the frequent and inevitable expression when discussing the Christians of the Middle East. The number of Christians in the birthplace of the faith has dwindled over centuries. According to a Pew report from December 2011, there were 4.07 million Christians in the Middle East in 1910, growing to 12.84 million by 2010. However, this figure is misleading; the devil lies in the details. It includes the large Christian expatriate population in the Gulf Arab countries. According to Pew, Saudi Arabia has 1.2 million Christians, including 1.05 million Catholics. It is well known that non-Muslim expatriates in the Gulf cannot obtain citizenship through marriage or residency. They remain residents and are citizens of third countries outside the region. Despite these numbers, Christians make up only 3.8 per cent of the regional population and account for a mere 0.6 per cent of the global Christian population.

Looking specifically at Catholics, the figures are even smaller. Of the estimated 2.18 billion Christians worldwide in 2010, 50.1 per cent identified as Catholic. Of the 12.84 million Christians in the Middle East, only 5.58 million, or 43.5 per cent, identified as Catholic. Lebanon, with 1.2 million Catholics, accounts for 38 per cent of Middle Eastern Catholics. While Egypt has around 4.29 million Christians, only 140,000 are Catholic. Thus, even within the regional Christian community, Catholics form a small minority.

This relatively small number of Middle Eastern Catholics is gaining greater significance in the Conclave beginning on May 7 to select the next Pope. Of the 252 cardinals representing 94 countries and territories, 135 are eligible to vote for the successor to Pope Francis, who passed away on Easter Monday. The remaining cardinals are ineligible, having turned 80 before the papacy became vacant. Much to the relief of the broader Catholic community, Cardinal Angelo Becciu—convicted by Francis in 2023 for fraud and embezzlement—has announced he will not attend the Conclave.

Of the 135 voting cardinals, 108 (including Becciu) were appointed by Francis. The remainder includes 22 appointed by his predecessor, Pope Benedict XVI, and five by Pope John Paul II. The geographic and national diversity of those appointed by Francis will influence the selection of the next pontiff. Italy has the largest number of electors with 17, followed by the United States with 10 and Brazil with seven. Four of the six Indian cardinals are electors, including two from Keralite churches.

Currently, five Middle Eastern cardinals will participate in the election. They hail from Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Morocco, and Jerusalem. Notably, all were appointed by Pope Francis, who is credited with broadening the geographic diversity of the College of Cardinals. For example, while John Paul II created 41 cardinals and Benedict XVI appointed 62, Francis appointed 149 cardinals during his twelve-year tenure—the most in recent history.

Viewed in this light, the five electors represent a small population of Middle Eastern Catholics. Based on 2010 estimates, Iraq, with 110,000 Catholics, has the largest such population in the region. Algeria and Iran each have fewer than 10,000 Catholics, while Morocco has around 10,000. Countries with larger Catholic populations—Lebanon (1.2 million), Egypt (140,000), and Israel (90,000)—currently have no representation in the College of Cardinals.

Due to historical animosity, Israel—recognised by the Vatican only in December 1993—has never had a cardinal, though Jerusalem has held a special status. Given the city’s religious centrality, particularly the Church of the Holy Sepulchre, nine patriarchs of Jerusalem have previously served as cardinals. The 10th, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, is Italian. He has served in Jerusalem since 2004 and became its Patriarch in 2020. The Latin Church in the city has fewer than 5,000 adherents.

Cardinal-elector Dominique Mathieu, Archbishop of Tehran-Isfahan, is the first cardinal from Iran. Neighbouring Iraq has had two cardinals in the past. The current cardinal, Louis Raphael Sako, is the Patriarch of Baghdad and heads the Chaldean Church, which represents most Iraqi Christians. Morocco's cardinal-elector is Cristóbal López Romero, Archbishop of Rabat.

Over the centuries, countries like Egypt and Syria, which have substantial Christian populations, have had cardinals who participated in papal elections. Lebanon has had seven cardinals since its founding. The current Maronite Patriarch, Bechara Boutros al-Ra'i, is over the age limit and ineligible to vote.

Thus, the five voting cardinals represent about 140,000 Middle Eastern Catholics. They will speak not only for the diminishing Catholic presence in the region but also for globally smaller communities such as the Chaldeans. However, the absence of cardinals from more populous Catholic communities in Egypt, Lebanon, and Israel will be keenly felt. Tradition holds that the next Pope must secure over two-thirds of the votes—at least 90—to be elected. In short, every vote counts.

Prof P. R. Kumaraswamy teaches contemporary Middle East studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.

Note:  This article was originally published in The Week on 05 May 2025 and has been reproduced with the permission of the author. Web Link

As part of its editorial policy, the MEI@ND standardizes spelling and date formats to make the text uniformly accessible and stylistically consistent. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views/positions of the MEI@ND. Editor, MEI@ND: P R Kumaraswamy