Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s three-nation tour of Asia is as much about demonstrating he stands tall – despite Western criticism of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the war in Yemen – as it is about exploiting geopolitical and economic opportunity.
Prince Mohammed is betting on the optics of his visit to Pakistan, India, and China offsetting talk in the US and Europe about arms embargoes and sanctions.
Prince Mohammed changed his itinerary at the last minute, delaying by a day his arrival in Pakistan and postponing visits to Malaysia and Indonesia. The stakes are nonetheless high.
Saudi Arabia has sought to strengthen ties with Pakistan with one eye on neighbouring Iran. The crown prince’s visit coincides with Pakistan becoming increasingly dependent on Saudi Arabia while relations with China, its closest ally, have become strained.
Saudi financial support for Pakistan is designed to counter expanding ties with Iran. That support includes a US$3 billion deposit into Pakistan’s central bank to bolster the country’s balance of payments and another US$3 billion in deferred oil import payments coupled with an expected US$10 billion investment in the troubled province of Baluchistan, which borders Iran.
Prince Mohammed could also seize upon Pakistani criticism of China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” and efforts to refocus the US$45 billion plus China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) on job creation, agriculture and industry.
However, Saudi investment in Pakistan could complicate Prince Mohammed’s attempts to forge closer economic and security ties with India, in light of the recent attack in Kashmir that killed at least 42 Indian military personnel, blamed on Pakistan. India has vowed to isolate Pakistan internationally, including seeking Pakistan’s blacklisting by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), with monitors financing of terrorism.
Managing the India-Pakistan minefield will test Prince Mohammed’s diplomatic skills. Iran’s India-backed, Arabian Sea deep-sea port of Chabahar is viewed by Saudi Arabia as encroaching on the kingdom’s national security and economic interests.
A study published in late 2017 by the Riyadh-based and government-backed International Institute for Iranian Studies identified Chabahar as a “direct threat to the Arab Gulf states”. The study warned Chabahar would enable Iran to increase oil exports to India at the expense of Saudi Arabia and raise foreign investment in Iran.
The study’s author, Mohammed Hassan Husseinbor, noted the expanse of Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan province.
“It would be a formidable challenge, if not impossible, for the Iranian government to protect such long distances and secure Chabahar in the face of widespread Baluch opposition, particularly if this opposition is supported by Iran’s regional adversaries and world powers,” Husseinbor wrote.
Iran has blamed a series of recent attacks in Sistan and Baluchistan on Pakistan-based militants allegedly supported by Saudi Arabia, the US and Israel.
Saudi Arabia’s economic and geopolitical investment in Pakistan will be on the agenda for the crown prince’s talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
China rejected Pakistan’s initial plan to incorporate into CPEC Saudi investment in a refinery in Gwadar, a crown jewel of the “Belt and Road Initiative” a mere 70km up the coast from Chabahar, and a gold and copper mine on the Iranian border.
Nonetheless, China has benefited from Saudi engagement in Pakistan despite concerns about the kingdom’s intentions. Financial support from Saudi Arabia and UAE has made a Pakistani request for a bailout by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) less urgent. That has in turn shielded China from potentially embarrassing disclosures of the financial terms of CPEC-related projects the IMF was demanding as part of a Pakistani bailout.
While the crown prince gave no reason for the postponement of his visit to Malaysia, it is unlikely money and investment would have been enough to fix Saudi Arabia’s problems with the Southeast Asian nation.
Relations since Mahathir Mohamad’s upset electoral victory last year have been strained by Saudi efforts to protect Najib Razak while he was prime minister. Deposed by Mahathir, the former prime minister has since been charged with corruption. Mahathir’s election victory also brought to office Mohamad Sabu, a defence minister with a track record of criticising the kingdom.
“Malaysia should not be too close to a country whose internal politics are getting toxic,” Sabu warned in a commentary. “For the lack of a better word, Saudi Arabia is a cesspool of constant rivalry among the princes. By this token, it is also a vortex that could suck any country into its black hole if one is not careful.”
Sabu has since withdrawn Malaysian troops from the Saudi Arabia-based 41-nation, Saudi-sponsored Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition. He has also closed a Saudi-funded anti-terrorism centre, the King Salman Centre for International Peace, which was allocated 16 hectares of land in Putrajaya, close to the prime minister’s complex, by the Razak government. The centre was inaugurated in 2017 by Prince Mohammed’s father, King Salman.
Prince Mohammed may emerge from his tour reassured, having been feted – certainly he would be less welcome in Washington or Western European capitals. The ultimate measure, however, will be his ability to manoeuvre and master a minefield of conflicting geopolitical interests, something he has not yet shown he can do.
Note: This article was originally published in the blog, The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer and has been reproduced under arrangement. Web link
James M. Dorsey is a Senior Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies as Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, co-director of the Institute of Fan Culture of the University of Würzburg, and the author of the blog, The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer. Email: jmdorsey@questfze.com
Religion scholar Esra Ozyurek has a knack for identifying trends that ring warning bells about where.....
A projected sharp reduction in trade between the United States and China in the next two years coupl.....
Public debates about China’s Middle East policy are as much internal Chinese discussions as th.....
Saudi Arabia has taken multiple steps to polish its tarnished image in advance of this weekend&rsquo.....
An Emirati offer to invest in Israel’s most controversial soccer club could serve as a figurat.....
A close read of the agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Israel suggests that the Jewish s.....
A rift between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia throws into sharp relief deepening fissures in the Muslim w.....
Rare polling of public opinion in Saudi Arabia suggests that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may be.....
China is contemplating greater political engagement in the Middle East in what would constitute a br.....
Europe is progressively being sucked into the Middle East and North Africa’s myriad conflicts......
China looms large as a potentially key player alongside Russia and Iran in President Bashas al-Assad.....
Civilizationalist leaders, who seek religious legitimacy, cater to a religious support base or initi.....
A decision by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC producers like R.....
The Coronavirus pandemic points a finger not only at the colossal global collapse of responsible pub.....
Syria’s announcement of its first COVID-19 case highlights the public health threat posed by w.....
The fight in this week’s Democratic primaries may have been about who confronts Donald J. Trum.....
A podcast version of this story is available on Sound cloud, ITunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Tune In, Spe.....
Saudi Arabia may have been getting more than it bargained for when authorities in Khujand, Tajikista.....
At the core of US president Donald J. Trump’s maximum pressure campaign against Iran lies the .....
The Iranian port city of Bandar-e-Mahshahr has emerged as the scene of some of the worst violence in.....
Saudi efforts to negotiate an end to the Yemen war in a bid to open a dialogue with Iran could call .....
China is manoeuvring to avoid being sucked into the Middle East’s numerous disputes amid mount.....
Fears of a potential military conflict with Iran may have opened the door to a Saudi-Iranian dialogu.....
By the law of unintended consequences, US President Donald J. Trump’s mix of uncritical and cy.....
Little suggests that fabulously wealthy Gulf States and their Middle Eastern and North African benef.....
A controversial former security official and Abu Dhabi-based political operator, Mohammed Dahlan, ha.....
Russia, backed by China, hoping to exploit mounting doubts in the Gulf about the reliability of the .....
China and Russia are as much allies as they are rivals. A joint Tajik-Chinese military exercise in a.....
Thought that sectarianism was a pillar of the Saud Iranian rivalry? Think again, think Kashmir where.....
These are tough times for Saudi Arabia. The drama enveloping the killing of journalist Jamal Khas.....
Saudi plans to become a major gas exporter within a decade raise questions about what the .....
A Turkish-Chinese spat as a result of Turkish criticism of China’s crackdown on Turkic Mu.....
This week’s suicide attack on Revolutionary Guards in Iran’s south-eastern province of S.....
It may be reading tea leaves but analysis of the walk-up to Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman&r.....
Alarm bells went off last September in Washington's corridors of power when John Bolton&rsq.....
US President Donald J. Trump’s threat to devastate Turkey’s economy if Turkish troo.....
Pakistan is traversing minefields as it concludes agreements on investment, balance of payments supp.....
A heavy soup made of pulled noodles, meat, and vegetables symbolizes Central Asia’s close cult.....
As far as Gulf leaders are concerned, President Donald J. Trump demonstrated with his announced.....
When President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently declared that Turkey was “the only country that c.....
A draft US Senate resolution describing Saudi policy in the Middle East as a "wrecking ball&quo.....
As Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman tours friendly Arab nations in advance of the Group of 20 .....
When Saudi General Khalid bin Sultan bin Abdul Aziz went shopping in the late 1980s for Chinese medi.....
Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan lands in Beijing on November 3, the latest head of government to.....
Saudi Arabia and Turkey, despite being on opposite sides of Middle Eastern divides, are cooperating .....
It’s easy to dismiss Iranian denunciations of the United States and its Middle Eastern allies .....
An attack on a military parade in the southern Iranian city of Ahwaz is likely to prompt Iranian ret.....
A Financial Action Task Force (FATF) report criticizing Saudi Arabia’s anti-money laundering a.....
Desperate for funding to fend off a financial crisis fuelled in part by mounting debt to China, Paki.....
Iran has raised the spectre of a US-Saudi effort to destabilize the country by exploiting .....
A possible ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, the Islamist group that controls the Gaza S.....
With multiple Middle Eastern disputes threatening to spill out of control, United Arab Emirates mini.....
Embattled former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak was the main loser in last month&rsq.....
Lurking in the background of a Saudi-Moroccan spat over World Cup hosting rights and the Gulf crisis.....
Amid ever closer cooperation with Saudi Arabia, Israel’s military appears to be adopting the k.....
Mounting anger and discontent is simmering across the Arab world much like it did in the w.....
Argentina’s cancellation of a friendly against Israel because of Israeli attempts to exploit t.....
Conventional wisdom has it that China stands to benefit from the US withdrawal from the 2015 interna.....
Saudi Arabia’s bitter rivalry with Iran has spilled onto Asian soccer pitches with t.....
A controversy in Algeria over the growing popularity of Saudi-inspired Salafi scholars spotlights th.....
Subtle shifts in Chinese energy imports suggest that China may be able to exert influence in the Mid.....
Egyptian general-turned-president Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi won a second term virtually unchallenged in w.....
Protests have erupted in Iran’s oil-rich province of Khuzestan barely three months after the I.....
Debilitating hostility between Saudi Arabia and Iran is about lots of things, not least who will hav.....
Saudi Arabia, in an indication that it is serious about shaving off the sharp edges of its Sunni Mus.....
The Middle East has a knack for sucking external powers into its conflicts. China’s ventures i.....
A Saudi draft law could constitute a first indication that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s .....
Turkish allegations of Saudi, Emirati and Egyptian support for the outlawed Kurdish Workers Party (P.....
Prominent US constitutional lawyer and scholar Alan M. Dershowitz raised eyebrows when he described .....
Plans to open a Salafi missionary centre in the Yemeni province of Al Mahrah on the border with Oman.....
If week-long anti-government protests in Iran exposed the Islamic republic’s deep-se.....
Kuwaiti billionaire Maan al-Sanea should have seen it coming after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin S.....
Long-standing Saudi efforts to dominate the pan-Arab media landscape appear to have moved into high .....