BILATERAL ISSUES

KUWAIT

Visit of External Affairs Minister to State of Qatar and State of Kuwait (October 28-31, 2018), New Delhi, 26 October 2018.

External Affairs Minister Smt. Sushma Swaraj will visit two countries in the Gulf region from 28 to 31 October 2018 at the invitation of her counterparts. She will have engagements in the State of Qatar from 28 and 29 October 2018 and in the State of Kuwait on 30 and 31 October 2018.

During her visit to the State of Qatar, EAM will interact with her counterpart H.E. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar. She will also call on His Highness Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani, Emir of the State of Qatar. During her visit, EAM will also interact with the Indian community in Doha.

India and Qatar share millennia old historic multi-dimensional, relations. The bilateral visit of His Highness the Emir of the State of Qatar in March 2015 and His Excellency Prime Minister of Qatar to India in December 2016 and that of the visit of Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi to Qatar in June 2016 have further boosted traditionally cordial and close ties between the two countries. Qatar hosts about seven lakh Indians who form the largest expatriate community there. Qatar is a reliable energy partner, supplying more than 50% of India’s natural gas imports. Our bilateral trade with Qatar in 2017-18 was US$ 9.9 billion.

The next leg of the visit would be to the State of Kuwait, where EAM will hold a bilateral meeting with her counterpart His Excellency Sheikh Sabah Al Khalid Al Sabah, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the State of Kuwait. She will also call on His Highness the Amir of the State of Kuwait, Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah and interact with the Indian community. India and Kuwait have close and friendly bilateral relations. Kuwait is a reliable energy supplier to India and hosts about ten lakh Indians forming the largest expatriate community. Our bilateral trade with Kuwait in 2017-18 was US$ 8.5 billion.

This will be Smt. Sushma Swaraj’s first visit as External Affairs Minister to both the countries. The visit is in pursuit of India’s objective of enhanced engagement with the Gulf region which is in India’s extended neighbourhood. It will provide an opportunity to hold in-depth discussions with the political leadership on a wide range of global, regional and bilateral issues and will advance India's growing engagement with these countries in particular and the region in general. Source: Ministry of External Affairs (MEA)

Agreement/MoU Exchanged between India and Kuwait during visit of External Affairs Minister to Kuwait, 31 October 2018

Source: Ministry of External Affairs (MEA)

QATAR

Visit of External Affairs Minister to State of Qatar (28-30 October 2018), New Delhi, 30 October 2018.

External Affairs Minister Smt. Sushma Swaraj visited the State of Qatar from 28 to 30 October 2018 at the invitation of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Qatar H.E. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani who had earlier visited New Delhi in August 2017.

EAM called on His Highness Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani, Emir of the State of Qatar who fondly recalled his visit to New Delhi in March 2015 and expressed hope that bilateral relations will be further strengthened. Both sides took note of the visit of Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi to Doha in June 2016 and agreed to tap the immense potential that exists in bilateral trade and investment. The Emir highly appreciated the rich contribution made by the Indian community in the overall progress and development of Qatar.

During her visit to the Doha, EAM held delegation level talks with her counterpart H.E. Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. Both sides discussed the entire gamut of bilateral relations and signed a Declaration to establish Joint Commission at the level of External Affairs and Foreign Minister to periodically review progress in various cooperation initiatives. Indian side mentioned that bilateral trade between India and Qatar in 2017-18 was US$ 9.9 billion and Indian exports to Qatar during this period registered an increase of 87% over the previous year. Qatari investments were invited in the areas including petrochemicals, infrastructure, agriculture and food processing. Both sides expressed satisfaction at the smooth functioning of various institutional mechanisms for strengthening of bilateral relationship.

In Doha, EAM addressed and interacted with over 500 representatives of the Indian community. They highly appreciated the initiatives taken by the Government of India for the welfare of Indian community abroad. A booklet titled 'Welcome to Qatar', prepared by the Embassy for Indians coming to Qatar for employment, was released by EAM at the event.

The visit provided an opportunity for a comprehensive review of the bilateral relations and take forward the decisions taken by the leadership of both the countries. Source: Ministry of Eternal Affairs (MEA)

Joint Declaration to Establish a Joint Commission Between the Government of the Republic of India And the Government of the State of Qatar. Doha, 29 October 2018.

The Government of the Republic of India, represented by the Ministry of External Affairs and the Government of the State of Qatar, represented by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs,

In pursuance of the decision taken by His Highness Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al-Thani, Amir of the State of Qatar and Shri Narendra Modi, Prime Minister of the Republic of India during the visit of the latter to Doha on 4-5 June 2016 to constitute an inter-ministerial High-Level Joint Committee to regularly review all bilateral matters, as well as regional and global issues of mutual interest,

Desirous to enhance and deepen the ties of fraternity and friendship between the two countries,

And to support cooperation between the two countries in all fields in service of the common objectives of the two friendly countries,

During the first ever visit of External Affairs Minister of India Smt. Sushma Swaraj to Doha on 28-30 October 2018,

Hereby declare as follows:

1. Both countries have decided to establish a Joint Commission to strengthen the relations between the two countries in various fields with a view to further the common interests of their two friendly peoples.
2. The Joint Commission will be charged with the following tasks:

1. Formulating the required basis to strengthen the relations between the two countries particularly in the economic, commercial, cultural, scientific, technological, information technology and educational fields.
2. Following up the implementation of the Agreements concluded between the two countries; and finding the suitable solutions for the resulting problems of the implementation thereof.
3. Facilitating the exchange of information and expertise; and encouraging bilateral consultation in service of cooperation between the two countries.

3. The Joint Commission will be co-chaired by the Ministers of External Affairs and Foreign Affairs of the two countries or their representatives; and may include in its membership representatives of the sectors concerned with the bilateral cooperation in both the countries.
4. The Joint Commission will hold a meeting at a time agreed by both countries alternately in each country. Extraordinary session may be held at the consent of both the countries.
5. The Joint Commission may, when necessary, form subordinate committees or permanent or temporary joint working groups to discharge specific tasks within their mandates. These subordinate committees and joint working groups will present their recommendations to the Joint Commission for consideration.
6. The draft agenda for each meeting will be decided by consultation between the two countries through diplomatic channels in advance of the respective meeting. The draft of the agenda will be presented to the Joint Commission to endorse it at the opening session of the meeting.
7. The scope of cooperation under this Joint Declaration may be modified with mutual written consent of both the countries. Source: Ministry of External Affairs (MEA)

MULTILATERAL ISSUES

INDIA-IRAN-AFGHANISTAN

First Trilateral Meeting between India, Afghanistan and Iran of the Coordination Council of the Chabahar Agreement, Tehran, 23 October 2018.

The first trilateral meeting between India, Afghanistan and Iran of the Coordination Council of the Chabahar Agreement took place on October 23, 2018 in Tehran. The Indian delegation was led by Mr T.S. Tirumurti, Secretary (Economic Relations). The Afghan and Iran delegations were led by respective Deputy Ministers of Transport.

Detailed discussions were held between the three sides on full operationalisation of the trilateral Agreement for international transit and transport through Chabahar Port. All sides shared the view that full operationalisation of trilateral Chabahar initiative will promote connectivity and economic development of Afghanistan and the region.

It was decided to constitute a Follow-up committee that would hold its first meeting within two months in Chabahar Port, Iran. It would, inter alia, discuss and aim to finalise protocol to harmonise transit, roads, customs, consular matters that was shared by the Indian side at the meeting for making the route attractive, decrease logistic costs and pave the way for smooth implementation of the Trilateral Chabahar Agreement.

It was decided to hold the next meeting of the Coordination Council in the first half of 2019 in India. Source: Embassy of India, Tehran

INDIA-OPEC

Third High-level Meeting of the OPEC-India Energy Dialogue, New Delhi, 17 October 2018

The third High-level Meeting of the OPEC-India Energy Dialogue was held on 17 October 2018 in New Delhi, India. The Meeting was co-chaired by HE Dharmendra Pradhan, India’s Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, and the OPEC Secretary General, HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo.

Both parties reiterated the continued importance of the OPEC-India Energy Dialogue as an indispensable forum for fostering good relations, facilitating knowledge exchange and pooling technical expertise. The regularity of interaction between both sides was commended and HE Barkindo thanked HE Pradhan for his active participation and valuable contribution to the 7th International OPEC Seminar. Discussions thereafter focused on current developments in the oil market and OPEC provided an update on its ongoing cooperation with non-OPEC producing countries under the umbrella of the “Declaration of Cooperation.”

In his opening remarks HE Barkindo said, “India is an extremely important partner for OPEC, and all of us in the Organization are determined to continue strengthening the relationship.” He emphasized that a major component of OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2018 was the increasing importance of India for the future of the international oil industry. HE Barkindo stated that India is “projected to have the fastest average oil demand growth (3.7% p.a.) in the period 2017-2040, as well as the largest additional demand.”

The High-level meeting saw presentations from OPEC on short-term oil market developments, as well as the long-term energy outlook. This included some analysis on the outlook for the global economy, oil supply and oil demand for the remainder of 2018, as well as medium- and long-term challenges and opportunities.

A technical meeting of experts from India and OPEC was also held prior to the High-level meeting to analyse various issues, as well as look at ways and means to enhance the cooperation in the coming years.

The third High-Level Meeting builds on the first that took place in New Delhi, India, on 15 December 2015, when HE Pradhan and accompanying Indian delegates hosted an OPEC delegation headed by the then OPEC Secretary General, HE Abdalla Salem El-Badri, and the second which took place in Vienna, Austria at the OPEC Secretariat, on 22 May 2017.

The parties agreed to have their next High-level meeting in 2019 in Vienna. Source: OPEC

Opening remarks by OPEC Secretary General at the 3rd High-level Meeting of the OPEC-India Energy Dialogue, Delivered by HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, OPEC Secretary General, at the 3rd High-level Meeting of the OPEC-India Energy Dialogue, New Delhi, 17 October 2018.

Your Excellency, Ladies and Gentlemen,

Namaskar!

It is a great pleasure to return to New Delhi and participate in this Third High Level Meeting of the OPEC-India Energy Dialogue.

To my dear friend, His Excellency, the Honourable Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas and Skill Development and Entrepreneurship, and all of his team, you have demonstrated once more the world-renowned Indian hospitality and we are very grateful - bahoot dhanyavad!

I am extremely fortunate, as this is my fourth mission to India since I assumed the position of OPEC Secretary General in August 2016. When I was here in April, I was delighted to visit the Digboi Refinery, Assam State, which represented the fulfilment of a lifetime wish.

The uniqueness of this great nation’s culture, the immense contribution of Indian civilization in shaping our world, means that it is a profound honour for any visitor to enjoy this land.

My only slight regret is that I could not stay to celebrate the great festival of Diwali here in a few weeks’ time!  And although it is a little early, please permit me, on behalf of OPEC, to take the opportunity to wish all of you, your families and all your loved ones, a Happy Diwali and Saal Mubarak.

In addition to my work-trips to this great land, the Honourable Minister and I meet regularly, in a range of other forums, which take place throughout the world.  OPEC was honoured that the Minister addressed the 7th International OPEC Seminar on 21 June 2018 and enriched our event immeasurably through his insightful remarks.

There are many factors which explain the frequency of these interactions between OPEC and India. It indicates the fact that as one very famous visitor to India put it, “It’s no exaggeration to say our Information Age is rooted in Indian innovations—including the number zero.” (Barack Obama) Furthermore, it reflects the initiative and visionary leadership of the Honourable Minister, who tirelessly works to ensure India positively influences international dialogue in the sphere of energy.

However, most fundamentally of all, India is an extremely important partner for OPEC, and all of us in the Organization are determined to continue strengthening this relationship both at a technical and high-level.

Since 2000, trade between India and OPEC has grown substantially. India’s overall imports from OPEC Member Countries increased from just over $4 billion to a high of above $170 billion in 2012, before dropping slightly in recent years. Total imports from OPEC Member Countries stood at $105 billion in 2017, up 25% year-on-year. And in the other direction, OPEC’s total imports from India increased from just under $4 billion in 2000 to over $60 billion in 2014. Moreover, OPEC Member Countries imports from India amounted to $44 billion in 2017.

In terms of crude oil, India’s total imports have risen from around 1.5 mb/d in 2000 to close to 4.3 mb/d in 2017.  And approximately 83% of this came from OPEC Member Countries.  In fact, in 2017 India was the third fastest oil demand growing nation globally, with an increase of close to 140,000 b/d, or 3.3%.

And this is not just a short- or medium-term trend. One of the central themes of OPEC’s flagship publication, the World Oil Outlook, the most recent version of which was launched in Algiers in September, also rolled-out yesterday in New Delhi, at the 2nd India Energy Forum, is the significant impact of India’s economic development on the energy industry.

We estimate that India’s economy will grow at an average annual rate of 6.5% for the period 2017-2040.

From the perspective of oil, demand growth will increasingly shift to India.  By 2040, India’s oil demand is anticipated to increase by over 120%, from around 4.7 mb/d to 10.4 mb/d.  Its total share of global oil demand will rise from almost 5%, to more than 9% by 2040.

India is therefore projected to have the fastest average oil demand growth (3.7% p.a.) in the period 2017-2040, as well as the largest additional demand.

To meet this increase in demand, both from India and elsewhere, the required global oil sector investment is estimated at $11 trillion. As I emphasized in my remarks at the India Energy Forum, this underscores the absolutely necessity of having a sustainable and stable oil market, conducive to encouraging the type of long-cycle investments necessary to meet future demand.

This trajectory made the last downturn in our oil industry, from 2014-2016, particularly concerning. At a time when we needed a strong investment climate in the industry, instead we saw one trillion dollars in investments being frozen or discontinued. Exploration and production spending fell by an enormous 25% in both 2015 and 2016.

Things needed to change, and as Mahatma Gandhi said, “be the change that you wish to see in the world.”

This has led to what is termed the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ process, whereby OPEC and its non-OPEC partners, work in a concerted manner to contribute to market stabilization efforts. The media tend to focus on the voluntary production adjustment component of this; however, there are a range of means by which the partners seek to work together in the interests of producers and consumers.

The impact of the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ has exceeded all expectations. The partnership has evolved from a noble vision to a transformative force-for-good, a permanent feature of our energy landscape. The OECD commercial stock overhang above the five-year-average has been reduced by more than 370 mb and switched to a deficit of around 32 mb in September 2018.

Despite the progress achieved to date, there remain many non-fundamental factors which influence the global oil industry and are beyond the control of any one stakeholder. These include geopolitics, natural disasters and other critical uncertainties. This has been very apparent in recent months.

Nevertheless, at the most recent meeting of the OPEC and non-OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which met in Algiers, Algeria, on 23 September 2018, participating countries, while acknowledging growing uncertainties surrounding market fundamentals, including the economy, demand and supply, reaffirmed their focus on seeking a balanced and sustainably stable global oil market, serving the interests of consumers, producers, the industry and the global economy at large.  The Committee also urged countries with spare capacity to work with customers to meet their demand during the remainder of 2018.

Your Excellency, Ladies and gentlemen,

Prime Minister Modi once said, “The power and energy sectors are the biggest constituents of the infrastructure sector. If you ignore them, no development will happen.”

We share these views, for we believe that our industry can make a major contribution to sustainable development. We should not forget that today around 3 billion people worldwide do not have clean fuels for cooking, and around 1 billion people have no access to electricity. And we are very cognizant of India’s ongoing commitment to tackle the scourge of energy poverty.

OPEC is committed to harnessing oil as a means of eradicating energy poverty in a sustainable manner. This can be achieved through collectively developing and adopting technologies, as well as all-inclusive energy policies, that transform the environmental credentials of all energies. This corresponds with the sub-target of Sustainable Development Goal 7 which aims “to enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technology, including cleaner fossil-fuel technology.”

Your Excellency, Ladies and Gentlemen,

As an intergovernmental organization, a collaborative approach to problem-solving and an emphasis on international dialogue on the basis of mutual respect are tenets integral to OPEC. It heartens us that India shares such commitment, for as Prime Minister Modi, so eloquently put it: “I believe mutual respect for one another and cooperation should be the basis for relationships with foreign nations.”

The challenges we face today are different to what they were just two years ago. However, there is no substitute to international dialogue and working together as the most effective means of acting in the best interests of consumers, producers and the global economy.

Once again, I thank you for endorsing, sustaining, enriching, and expanding this dialogue, as well as for your hospitality and Jai Hind! Source: OPEC

Plenary remarks by OPEC Secretary General at the 2nd annual India Energy Forum by CERA Week, Delivered by HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, OPEC Secretary General, at the 2nd annual India Energy Forum by CERA Week, New Delhi, 16 October

Your Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen,

Namaste!

It is a distinct honour for me to address the 2nd India Energy Forum by CERA Week. I would like to congratulate IHS Markit, supported by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas of the Government of India, for organizing such a stellar event. Thank you to our host, the Honourable Dharmendra Pradhan, Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas and Skill Development and Entrepreneurship, for the magnificent hospitality extended to the OPEC team- bahoot dhanyavad!

As ever, I am extremely pleased to share the floor with my Professor, Dan Yergin. Dan has been a tremendous friend of OPEC’s over the years and I am looking forward to hearing his remarks.

The theme of the Indian Energy Transition is very much bound with the global energy transition, underscoring how interconnected our energy future will be. It was India’s Noble Prize-winning poet, Rabrindranath Tagore, the first non-European to win that distinguished prize, who foresaw a future,

Where the world has not been broken up into fragments by narrow domestic walls.

The interconnectivity of our world means that the only way we can overcome common challenges is through international cooperation and teamwork. This approach is integral to OPEC and is reflected in our Statute. It receives its modern manifestation in our collaboration with our Non-OPEC partners under the umbrella of the historic ‘Declaration of Cooperation.’ And a collaborative approach, centred on the principles of mutual respect, transparency and knowledge-exchange forms the basis of the ever-blossoming relationship between OPEC and India.

Another defining characteristic of our energy future is that oil will continue to play a critical role in the energy mix. This is one of the foremost conclusions of OPEC’s recently launched World Oil Outlook (WOO) for 2018 on which topic there was a dedicated presentation at this forum by the OPEC Research Division yesterday, 15 October.

One of the other key take-aways from this presentation was the pivotal importance that India will play in the future of the global oil industry and economic growth.

We forecast that primary energy demand, globally, is expected to increase by 33%, or 91 mboe/d, between 2015 and 2040. A massive 24% of this anticipated increase will be from India, or 22 mboe/d.

World oil demand is expected to increase by 14.5 mb/d, increasing from 97.2 mb/d in 2017 to 111.7 mb/d in 2040. India will account for oil demand growth of 5.8 mb/d, which represents an astonishing 40% of the overall increase.

Therefore, the WOO concludes that India is projected to see the largest additional oil demand (3.7% per annum) and the fastest growth in the period to 2040.

This impressive growth reflects the remarkable transformation of the Indian economy during the forecast period. We estimate that India’s economy will grow at an average annual rate of 6.5% for the period 2017-2040.  Real GDP is expected to surpass OECD Europe by 2035, and by 2040, it is anticipated to even surpass OECD America.

Now to meet the future needs of both India, and the world; in the period up to 2040, the required global oil sector investment is estimated at $11 trillion.

Given these investment needs; consider how gravely worrying the situation was during the last market downturn, the most severe in the industry’s history.  From 2014 to 2016, world oil supply growth outpaced that of oil demand, with world oil supply growing by 5.8 mb/d, while world oil demand increased by 4.3 mb/d.

By July 2016, OECD commercial stock overhang reached a record high of about 403 mb over the five-year average. The OPEC Reference Basket price fell by an extraordinary 80% between June 2014 and January 2016.

Most ominously of all, investments were choked-off, with exploration and production spending falling by an enormous 25% in both 2015 and 2016. Additionally, nearly one trillion dollars in investments were frozen or discontinued, and many thousands of high-quality jobs were lost. A record number of companies in our industry filed for bankruptcy.

The multiplier effects of this contagion had the potential to wreak havoc on the future of the global economy, especially in developing countries. There can be no doubt about it, our industry was on the verge of catastrophe; a catastrophe that would have been devastating for producers and co

And when I consider this scenario, I am reminded of just how prescient the great statesman and father of this nation, Mahatma Gandhi, was when he said, “the future depends on what you do today.”

To safeguard a future which has the interests of consumers and producers at its core, decisive action was necessary. For as Rabindranath Tagore also said, “you can’t cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water.”

OPEC, in cooperation with a group of 10 other non-OPEC producers, held extensive consultations about the portentous situation in the latter half of 2016. These efforts eventually culminating in an historic decision in December 2016 of voluntary production adjustments under the name of the ‘Declaration of Cooperation,’ aimed at reintroducing stability to the market; stability essential for creating conditions conducive to attracting investment back to our industry.

Since 2016, the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ has evolved from a noble vision to a transformative force-for-good, a permanent feature of the energy landscape – one that has had a profoundly positive impact on the global oil industry and beneficial multiplier effects for global economic growth.

A long-absent element of stability has been reintroduced to the market, the rate of inventory drawdowns has been reversed and industry optimism and confidence abounds.

The importance of the Declaration has also received backing from other producers, as well as from consumers. Without the collective efforts of the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ strategic partners, the oil industry and the global economy would have easily slid into a major crisis.

Throughout the entire ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ process, we have solicited the views of consumers, incorporating and responding to them within our strategy. The OPEC-India dialogue, the Third High Level Meeting of which will take place tomorrow, has been extremely important in this regard.

While a broad and inclusive consultative process has yielded results; it continues to remain necessary because of current conditions in the global economy and in the oil industry.

Non-fundamental factors, beyond the control of any individual stakeholder, can have a particularly strong influence on our industry. Geopolitical events, natural catastrophes, technological breakthroughs or other critical uncertainties, these can feed into the financial markets, thus amplifying their impacts on oil. This has been particularly apparent in recent months.

OPEC’s recently published Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) acknowledged this in its most recent publication on 11 October. While global economic growth remains solid, it faces potential headwinds.

Following a period of relatively synchronized growth, the economic growth trends between, and within, major regions are increasingly diverging. While growth in the major OECD economies remains well supported, decelerating trends have become visible in some emerging markets and developing countries (EMDCs).

A combination of monetary tightening of the G4 central banks, weakening financial situations in some EMDCs, rising trade disputes and ongoing geopolitical challenges in some parts of the world are thus challenging the growth trend. Hence, OPEC’s global economic growth forecast for 2018 was revised down slightly by 0.1 percentage points to now stand at 3.7%, while the 2019 forecast remains unchanged at 3.6%.

Other reporting agencies draw similar conclusions. The IMF, in advance of the recent 2018 Annual Meetings of the IMG and World Bank Group, 12-14 October in Bali, Indonesia, in a similar manner, downgraded its 2018 estimate for global growth to 3.7%, which although robust, is down from an earlier forecast of 3.9%. Furthermore, the IMF conclusion from its Annual Meetings noted that

“policy uncertainty, historically high debt levels, rising financial vulnerabilities and limited policy could further undermine growth prospects.”

Of course, a downward revision for global economic growth has serious repercussions for global oil demand. Consequently, OPEC has revised down its world oil demand growth forecast for 2018 and 2019. According to the October edition of the MOMR, world oil demand is projected to increase by 1.54 mb/d in 2018, a downward revision of around 80 tb/d from the previous month’s report. In 2019, world oil demand is anticipated to grow by 1.36 mb/d to average 100.15 mb/d, a downward revision of 50 tb/d from last month’s report.

There have also been concerns expressed by consumers with regard to the outlook for supply, including from some of our friends in India.

However, our current view is that the market is at the moment adequately supplied and well-balanced, though in a fragile state. For 2019, there is a growing potential for an imbalance, due to larger growth in supply. Naturally, this prognosis is subject to the critical uncertainties mentioned earlier.

Our recent meeting of the OPEC and non-OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which met in Algiers, Algeria, on 23 September 2018, explicitly acknowledged and addressed some of the concerns of consumers with regard to supply. I would like to quote from the meeting’s conclusions:

The JMMC noted that, despite growing uncertainties surrounding market fundamentals, including the economy, demand and supply, the participating producing countries of the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ continue to seek a balanced and sustainably stable global oil market, serving the interests of consumers, producers, the industry and the global economy at large.

The Committee urged countries with spare capacity to work with customers to meet their demand during the remaining months of 2018.

This underscores the commitment of OPEC Member Countries to accommodate anxiety over supply interruptions.

Ladies and gentlemen,

In the midst of critical uncertainties, downside risks to the global economy and issues related to future demand, international cooperation and multilateralism are, quite simply, indispensable.

For this reason, OPEC and its non-OPEC partners in the “Declaration of Cooperation,” continue to explore further means of institutionalizing our cooperation. In this spirit, I wholeheartedly endorse the sentiment and conclusions of World Bank Group President Jim Young Kim, when he recently said,

“Challenges can turn into crisis if we don’t face them together. The strongest tool that we have to battle those challenges is the kind of solidarity that is embedded in multilateralism.”

Ladies and gentlemen,

It would be remiss of me to omit the climate change challenge from any discussion on the energy transition. This is particularly relevant given the launch on 8 October 2018 of an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways.

Allow me to share some observations: the report indicates that there are multiple pathways to a 1.5°C warmer world; however, climate-related risks are unevenly distributed and the impact of 1.5°C global warming will disproportionately affect disadvantaged populations, especially in the Developing World.

Given the scale of this challenge to eliminate 42 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in annual emissions, a collective and comprehensive response is not only essential, but urgently needed. The key word here is emissions. We cannot afford to disregard the positive contributions of any one energy source or industry. We in OPEC are unwavering believers that the global oil industry has a critical role to play in meeting the challenge. For our industry, we need to recognize that the environmental challenge is not oil and gas in-and-of themselves.  It is the emissions that come from burning them.

This is not about choosing one energy source over another. It has been suggested in some quarters that renewables are our only energy future. Not only is this line of thinking misguided, it overlooks the critical role the oil industry can play in being part of the solution.

And I believe that solutions can be found in technologies that reduce and ultimately eliminate these emissions.

OPEC remains fully engaged with and supportive of the Paris Agreement. We firmly believe that a global consensus from the multilateral process remains the best and most inclusive way for all nations to collectively counter climate change in a fair and equitable manner.

Alongside this challenge, energy poverty, as the IPCC report acknowledges, remains a scourge of our age. Today around 3 billion do not have clean fuels for cooking, and approximately 1 billion have no access to electricity. The link between climate change and sustainable development appears to be rather complex; and the IPCC report concludes that maximising synergies and limiting trade-offs should be the goal when planning future actions to reduce climate change and pursuing sustainable development promoting equitable societies.

Reducing the development and climate policy implementation gap depends on an enabling international governance and financial architecture that allows access to finance and technology and helps address trade barriers.

It is important to recognize that in order to reach such a temperature target, it is important to ensure a Party-driven process, recall different national circumstances; evoke the principles of equity and of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities; balance mitigation, adaptation and the means of implementation; and take into account the overriding priority of sustainable development.

With regard to the energy transition, it should be stressed that it is vital to use energy efficiently and constantly develop and adopt cleaner energy technologies, such as Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage. Coordinated action should also be enhanced, supporting research and development, innovation and technology transfer; while providing sufficient financial support.

Ladies and gentlemen,

Another Indian Noble Prize winner, Kailash Satyarthi, once said,

India is a place for a billion solutions.

Given the rapid development of this great nation, and the great potential of its young people, we will all surely agree with this statement. May this wonderful country; a land of ceaseless innovation, cultural diversity, and boundless ingenuity, inspire us all to continue to work together in the interests of consumers and producers.

Once again, I thank you for your hospitality and Jai Hind! Source: OPEC

INDIA-GCC

Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council Meets with the Ambassador of the Republic of India to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 17 October 2018.

The Secretary General of the Gulf Cooperation Council Dr. Abdullatif bin Rashid al-Zayani, met on Wednesday, 17th October 2018, at his office in the GCC headquarters in Riyadh, the Ambassador of the Republic of India to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia HE Mr. Ahmad Javed.

During the meeting, they discussed the friendly relations between the GCC and the Republic of India and means of developing these relations in various fields. As well as, issues of common interest.

The meeting was attended by Dr. Abdulaziz Hamad Al-Owaishek GCC Assistant Secretary General for Political Affairs and Negotiations. Source: GCC

As part of the policy, the MEI@ND standardizes spellings and date format to make the text uniformly accessible and stylistically consistent. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views/positions of the MEI@ND. Editor, MEI@ND P R Kumaraswamy